What's Happening
The Dow shed nearly 785 points Thursday as oil prices surged on Middle East conflict fears, putting the index on track for its worst week since October. The U.S. struck an Iranian drone carrier — described by a top American admiral as "on fire" — while Washington simultaneously issued a waiver allowing India to continue purchasing Russian oil to prevent a global supply crunch.
Market Impact
Energy prices are the primary transmission mechanism: higher crude directly pressures consumer spending, airline stocks, and transport-heavy sectors. The India-Russia oil waiver is a stopgap that signals Washington fears a supply shock severe enough to override its own sanctions architecture.
Broader Implications
The conflict is fracturing Trump's trade strategy — India was supposed to be weaning off Russian oil as part of a bilateral deal, but the Iran war has reversed that calculus entirely, exposing the limits of economic leverage during active military operations.
